When he sent the federal army into Tigray at dawn on 4 November, Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed Ali did not think that he would be bogged down three months later in an asymmetric war with an uncertain outcome. The 2019 Nobel Peace Prize winner repeatedly insisted at the time that his operation "to restore order" would be short. He was in a hurry to end 27 years of domination by the Tigray People's Liberation Front (TPLF). The operation had been in preparation for a long time, notably through