The development of Cabo Delgado province's vast gas resources has brought with it the emergence of an armed insurgency, one that is yet to be clearly defined but is already impinging on Total and ExxonMobil's operations there. As the conflict worsens, President Nyusi has been prompted to seek foreign help.
The US oil company has decided to redesign its future liquefied natural gas (LNG) trains in Mozambique in order to reduce their carbon footprint. The major is keen to project an image of an environmentally virtuous project.
Rwandan security and construction firms have been flooding into Cabo Delgado looking for business opportunities following Kigali's military intervention to secure the gas-rich Mozambican province.
With European funds, the French defence parastatal Economat des Armées (EDA) is to supply eight Zodiac Milpro boats to reinforce Mozambique's coastguard. The service provider is muscling in on a security cooperation sector hitherto dominated by Expertise France.
After a two-year hiatus, the Mozambique LNG mega-project in Cabo Delgado province looks set to get going again. TotalEnergies and its subcontractors have already resumed some activities and are on a hiring spree.
Rwanda has significantly increased the number of its troops deployed to fight the jihadist insurrection in northern Mozambique.
A new Tanzanian contingent took up position in the restive Mozambican province of Cabo Delgado in early December in a bid to shore up a struggling military coalition battling jihadist rebels. A Rwandan army unit was meanwhile redeployed further south to try to contain attacks by armed groups.
A project to launch a second floating LNG facility on the Mozambican offshore gas field Coral is under discussion. But ExxonMobil and ENI, the two main shareholders of Area 4, are dragging their heels on making a decision.
The head of TotalEnergies is due to announce on site the details of the forthcoming resumption of work on its two liquefaction trains in the Cabo Delgado gas province.
The regional SAMIM force, deployed in northern Mozambique, has announced an investigation after a video emerged of soldiers burning bodies of suspected insurgents. South Africa is hoping to turn the page on the incident as quickly as possible.
More than a year after Rwanda and southern African countries begin their armed interventions in the province of Cabo Delgado, Rwanda and South Africa remain suspicious of each other. Recent closer relations between South Africa and Mozambique could, however, change the balance of power in the region.
Although security remains precarious in Cabo Delgado province, the French major appears to be ready to revive its vast Mozambique LNG project.
A CN-235 troop transport aircraft sold in 2019 by Sofema to Madagascar has just been delivered in new livery to Mozambique by Paramount. It will be deployed in the fight against Islamist insurgents in Cabo Delgado.
The EU, through the European Peace Facility, could delay by a few weeks the release of its €20m aid package to finance Kigali's military intervention in the Mozambican province of Cabo Delgado.
Two months after being questioned by an opposition MP, Defence Minister Thandi Modise at last specified the cost of two of the @SANDF_ZA overseas missions.
After three years coordinating Portugal's contribution to combating the insurrection in Cabo Delgado, the navy commander Paulo Gonçalves da Silva is preparing to make way for the air force officer Bertolino Miranda Ferreira at Portugal's embassy in Mozambique.
The European Union's European Peace Facility (EPF) has freed up €5m to equip the Mozambican Coast Guard with 35 9.5 m rapid intervention speedboats as part of its programme to fight piracy and illegal immigration.
Discussions are underway between the US and South Africa to transfer a dozen C130H transport aircraft to help Pretoria fight Islamist militants in Mozambique. But the South African defence minister is reluctant.
The SADC intervention force in northern Mozambique, to which South Africa is the main contributor, has suffered a series of setbacks, including logistical snafus, lack of intelligence gathering, and poor coordination with Rwandan and Mozambican troops.
The European Union (EU) has just approved a €20m support plan for Kigali.
With Rwandan troops still helping to secure the far northern Mozambican province, investors close to Kigali now have their sights set on graphite, a mineral which is increasingly in demand for manufacturing electric batteries.
There is a fierce battle for catering contracts in Mozambique afoot. While TotalEnergies and ExxonMobil's major projects are currently stalled, French firms have already selected local businessmen to help position themselves for future gas developments.
Despite the unrest in the province, some companies with political clout continue to work for TotalEnergies.
The US and Italian majors are radically changing their plans for the huge gas reserves in their Block 4 in Mozambique. They no longer believe that calm will be restored to Cabo Delgado any time soon.
The French major no longer believes that it can restart its operations in Cabo Delgado in the next few months. Despite the presence of Rwandan soldiers, it has no way of guaranteeing even minimal security for several hundred contracted personnel on the LNG site.
Rwanda's intervention in Cabo Delgado should soon enable the French major TotalEnergies to resume its huge liquefied natural gas project in the region. But in the face of the rising mission costs, several options are on the table to support the Rwandan military effort financially.
ExxonMobil is holding regular talks about its giant gas production project with the companies involved, primarily ENI and CNPC. News about the future of the liquefaction trains, and their technical specifications, is expected to be announced soon.
TotalEnergies has still not ended the force majeure it decreed more than a year ago that shut down its Mozambique LNG mega-project after insurgent attacks. But it is preparing to reopen the Afungi site where the two LNG liquefaction trains will be built.
Après avoir déployé en début d'année ses premiers détachements d'instruction au profit de l'armée mozambicaine, l'armée française est en train d'accélérer en mettant à disposition de nouveaux formateurs dans le cadre de l'EUTM-Mozambique.
Mozambique: Involved in the 'pacification' of the troubled province of Cabo Delgado, the Forças Armadas de Defesa de Moçambique (FADM) have just received between 100 and 150 military trucks to help transport troops.
From 22 to 27 May, representatives from the Portuguese-speaking armies that are part of the Community of Portuguese Language Countries will gather in Praia, the capital of Cape Verde to discuss issues of defence, notably the unrest in Cabo Delgado.
French oil company TotalEnergies is on the verge of announcing its return to the province of Cabo Delgado. Now its partners have to be informed, and prepared.
The South African company Solenta Aviation has just been selected by the United Nations to provide transport for the peacekeepers of the UN Interim Security Force for Abyei (Unisfa).
There is considerable local interest in future services contract opportunities for the development of Cabo Delgado's liquefied natural gas reserves. The question now is who could apply and in what area.
French major TotalEnergies and its partners are meeting more and more often to discuss resuming activities on Mozambique LNG. A specific date should be given soon.
The French oil giant is poised to resume its activities in the troubled Cabo Delgado province, where it intends to revive the construction of its LNG plant.
Mindful that Rwandan forces rescued the French major's LNG project in Cabo Delgado, its would-be subcontractors are more and more worried about a competitor from Kigali.
The Rwandan company has joined, at the last minute, the list of firms bidding to carry out preparatory work at the site of the Mozambique LNG project. French major TotalEnergies has a debt to pay to Rwanda for its role in restoring security in Cabo Delgado Province.
While President Filipe Nyusi is hard at work to give the coalition in Cabo Delgado more fighting power, his staff reassures private investors.
Before his move to Mozambique, the career diplomat is taking advantage of the end of his stint in Kigali to consolidate his relationship with Paul Kagame, who is in charge of the military operations underway in the gas province of Cabo Delgado.
TotalEnergies CEO Patrick Pouyanné is preparing a trip to Mozambique and Rwanda to oversee his group's return to the troubled province of Cabo Delgado to restart the giant Mozambique LNG project.
Since December, Filipe Nyusi's defence minister has been working hard to make sure that international military assistance continues for Maputo in the wake of the crisis in Cabo Delgado.
The French major and the Mozambican authorities are indicating that investments may resume in the conflict-ridden province in 2022, but the nature of the operations there could change radically.
As the US attempts to restore ties with the Mozambican army, Russia's deputy foreign minister Mikhail Bogdanov has offered Maputo Moscow's help in training the country's soldiers. Despite the official withdrawal of the paramilitaries from Wagner in 2020, Russian soldiers have never completely vacated Mozambican soil.
The US foreign service wants to get involved in Filipe Nyusi's anti-terrorism efforts in Cabo Delgado. US-Mozambican defence cooperation has been at a standstill since 2017.
President Nyusi's latest reshuffles within the Mozambican security apparatus were carried out to prepare for the ruling Frelimo party congress scheduled for next September. The congress will be all about choosing Nyusi's successor, but the party's powerful central committee will also hold him accountable for his handling of the Cabo Delgado crisis.
Jean Paul Rutagarama is actively involved in the mining industry and has followed in Paul Kagame's footsteps in Maputo, having already signed a partnership in gold refining with Kinshasa, thanks to the Rwandan head of state.
In recent weeks, the European Union has been considering what shape financial support for the Rwandan army in Cabo Delgado might take. This would complement the decision by Brussels to dispatch instructors to train the Mozambican army.
TotalEnergies' plans to resume its LNG project in the north of the country are up against deep-rooted security issues around the site but also frustrating relations with one of its main service providers, Saipem.
Since arriving in power in 2015, President Filipe Nyusi has little by little restructured his diplomatic corps, which serves as a vital tool for conveying to the international community justification for the army's lack of results in the conflict-hit region of Cabo Delgado.
Mpho Molomo, head of the SADC mission in Mozambique and ex-adviser to President Mokgweetsi Masisi, is working to make the organisation's intervention and Botswana's role in the situation in Cabo Delgado known.
TotalEnergies will hold a meeting with its Mozambican partners on the Mozambique LNG liquefaction project on October 7 in Pemba, Cabo Delgado province's capital.
Specialising in engineering projects in conflict zones, CADG is set to carry out programmes for the Mozambican army.
The SADC member countries fighting terrorist groups in Cabo Delgado province have each taken on a different role in the operation. Angola has been tasked with delivering equipment to the troops on the ground.
This weekend the Mozambican armed forces are preparing to take a group of international journalists to Cabo Delgado, where an Islamist insurrection has been simmering since 2017.
The speedy start of Rwandan army operations in Cabo Delgado has finally enabled Mozambique to reclaim the territories it had lost. The government's other military partners were not given the same opportunities to bring their troops into the conflict so quickly, however, and are struggling to establish contact with Mozambican army command structure which has been entirely reorganised by Filipe Nyusi.
After the Rwandan army's successful intervention, the division of labour between the various troops deployed in the troubled Cabo Delgado region seems to have become clearer.
The rapid progress of the Rwandan army's intervention in the Cabo Delgado Province has led to a growing sense of optimism by the French oil and gas major, which could speed up the timetable for the resumption of its work.
The Rwandan soldiers deployed to Cabo Delgado have already fired shots at the Islamist-linked group whose actions forced TotalEnergies to bring the construction of its gas liquefaction facility to a standstill.
The Rwandan army's mission in Cabo Delgado in northern Mozambique, which had been shrouded in mystery and which went on for longer than expected, ended on 8 July. The 30 soldiers sent there on reconnaissance have retreated to Nacala for a few days.
After supplying several remilitarised helicopters, the South African firm has delivered a first Mwari surveillance plane to Mozambique's army.
Rwandan army officers have made a number of trips to the northern Mozambican gas-producing province. They are looking into how they might intervene against the violent armed groups operating there.
To avoid further headache, the French major has decided to cough up and compensate the companies that it or its own subcontractors had hired on its now shelved LNG export project.
The United States is worried that violent unrest in the northern province of Mozambique might spread to neighbouring states. The State Department plans to closely monitor Mozambique's border with Malawi.
Dennis Hearne is next year due to move on from his post as US ambassador to Mozambique, one he has occupied since 2019.
The government would like European Council president Charles Michel to visit before the year is out.
After an encouraging trip to Paris, President Filipe Nyusi is hoping French and Portuguese leaders will supply military vehicles.
The governor of Cabo Delgado, Valige Tauabo, has set up a new entity to channel public funds to his province to stimulate the economy and combat the ongoing insurrection. But the new public company will also serve to enhance the governor's personal influence.
While the military relies on equipment provided by Paramount and its sister company Burnham Global to fight Islamist-linked insurgents in Cabo Delgado, the police are continuing a discreet collaboration with the Dyck Advisory Group.
The Mozambican president, under pressure from the ruling Felimo party's leadership, is accepting a drip-feed of military aid from his European and African partners.
The Rwandan president has dispatched a team of officers to assess the potential for his army to support Mozambique in its battle against the Islamist insurgents in Cabo Delgado.
TechnipFMC, the French major subcontractor on its vast gas project that is now in limbo, have hired a group of firms to take down and remove the infrastructure still in Palma.
Total is walking on eggshells with the Mozambican authorities, wanting to both draw lessons from the close of its LNG facility build and stand firm on the terms of its return.
The French-US oil services giant has decided to follow the general retreat from Mozambique's Cabo Delgado region begun by Total.
Mozambique has not renewed its contract with the Dyck Advisory Group, which provided air support to the Mozambican police. However, its boss Lionel Dyck is keeping his men on standby in the vast network of Mozambican parks, and also in Beira.
On 28 April, Mozambican president Filipe Nyusi took off in his private jet from Pemba in Cabo Delgado for a destination kept secret from most.
At the upcoming SADC talks in Maputo, Botswanan President Mokgweetsi Masisi will put foward a military and logistical response to the security crisis in Cabo Delgado, an initiative that is also intended to shore up the candidacy of Masisi favourite Elias Magosi as SADC secretary-general.
The Afungi gas site is likely to remain dormant for at least a year. Total has no faith in the Mozambican army's capacity to restore order there any time soon.
The French president has invited his Mozambican counterpart to join an African summit on 18 May. The meeting follows a military fiasco in Cabo Delgado province.
Maputo is in a hurry to buy armoured vehicles to help its beleaguered army fend off insurgents wreaking havoc in the gas-rich province of Cabo Delgado. South African suppliers are keen to oblige.
The Zimbabwean president, frustrated with SADC's position on the Cabo Delgado crisis, caught his fellow leaders off guard when he unilaterally announced that the organisation's military force would intervene in the troubled province. Mnangagwa's statement was in sharp contrast to SADC's usually prudent language.
Armed violence in the region has brought work on the French major's liquefaction trains to a complete stop. When it will resume is anybody's guess.
The capture of Palma, five kilometres from major gas infrastructure at Afungi, illustrates the difficulties faced by Mozambique's armed forces and the Dyck Advisory Group in trying to secure the region. Dyck has teamed up with Canadian security giant GardaWorld to try and do a better job of it.
Ports on Africa's southeastern shoreline are competing to capture a share of the huge traffic generated by the construction of liquefaction trains by French oil major Total.
A delegation from Technip FMC, the French-American oil company in charge of the subsea installations of Total's LNG project off the coast of Cabo Delgado province in Mozambique, should be in Mayotte in mid-March for one last survey of the local port infrastructure and services.
Shaking off an illness that has kept him confined to South Africa for months, the retired colonel Lionel Dyck headed to Mozambique in March to launch an internal probe in response to allegations by Amnesty International.
The Covid-19 pandemic and the uprising in Cabo Delgado have prompted most operators to revise their medium-term plans. Their main financial partner, Standard Bank, reckons the delays will last between several months and several years.
Mozambique's business dynasties don't want to miss out on Cabo Delgado's gas bonanza and are taking positions on ancillary activities.
Like the Dyck Advisory Group, Archipelago, the helicopter operator now working for the Mozambican police and interior minister Amade Miquidade, is linked to the group of companies in charge of protecting national parks. It is also active in tourism in Cabo Delgado.
Of all the directorates of the Southern African Development Community, the one charged with regional political, defence, and security issues is by far the most strategic. Headed by Angola's Jorge Cardoso, it has to humour the changing moods of the organisation's rotating presidents at a time when a SADC military response is increasingly expected in Mozambique's Cabo Delgado province.
The ostensibly common interests of Mamoudzou's logistics firms have not always sufficed to secure business from Total's Cabo Delgado gas activities.
With Total demanding significant security guarantees from the Mozambican military, Nyusi is currently without a chief of staff after the incumbent died less than a month after his appointment. His successor will be faced with the task of protecting the gas majors from the jihadist insurrection, which is hindering the extraction of the country's natural resources.
The majors working in the north of Mozambique are set to have less and less latitude as local content legislation takes form.
President Filipe Nyusi's non-responsiveness over Cabo Delgado has prompted the Saudi and UAE ambassadors to work together to protect their interests in Mozambique.
Angolan state oil company Sonangol, unwilling to cut off its sources of fresh liquidity as it struggles with heavy debts, aims to hold on to its stake in Galp, particularly since the Portuguese energy company has invested in Mozambique's promising gas sector.
Without waiting for Filipe Nyusi to explain exactly what he wants from them, France and Portugal have held a series of meetings to define how the European Union will contribute to countering the insurgency in Cabo Delgado province.
Total is hoping to set up a logistics base in Mayotte for its Mozambican offshore operations. The French island for its part is looking at the bigger picture and dreams of becoming the major's permanent rear base in the Indian Ocean.
Although it has put its activities on hold in recent months, the Dyck Advisory Group retains its contract to mentor the police in the face of the Cabo Delgado uprising.
Cabo Delgado is now a no-go zone for Total. Its giant LNG project is on hold until Mozambique can guarantee safety in the province.
To train Filipe Nyusi's soldiers in counter-insurgency operations, foreign service providers to the Mozambican army are travelling to Cabo Delgado with the help of Solenta, the transport company employed by Total, which operates the Afungi gas operations.
Faced with the inefficiency of the Mozambican defence forces, Total wants fresh guarantees, otherwise the Afungi LNG plant project could be put on hold.
