From Bangui to Maputo, Paul Kagame has turned Rwanda's armed forces into a powerful tool of his African diplomacy, wielded adeptly by his army commander Jean-Bosco Kazura and his police chief Dan Munyuza.
The only declared candidate for the African seat on the UN Security Council for 2023-2024, Mozambique is now looking to garner support in Europe.
The Rwandan army's mission in Cabo Delgado in northern Mozambique, which had been shrouded in mystery and which went on for longer than expected, ended on 8 July. The 30 soldiers sent there on reconnaissance have retreated to Nacala for a few days.
TechnipFMC, the French major subcontractor on its vast gas project that is now in limbo, have hired a group of firms to take down and remove the infrastructure still in Palma.
At the upcoming SADC talks in Maputo, Botswanan President Mokgweetsi Masisi will put foward a military and logistical response to the security crisis in Cabo Delgado, an initiative that is also intended to shore up the candidacy of Masisi favourite Elias Magosi as SADC secretary-general.
The Afungi gas site is likely to remain dormant for at least a year. Total has no faith in the Mozambican army's capacity to restore order there any time soon.
On top of diplomatic and military aid to the Central African Republic, Rwanda has quietly been placing its pawns in the country's mining sector and has its sights set on various infrastructure projects. This economic entryism is made possible by a handful of advisors close to the CAR president.
Of all the directorates of the Southern African Development Community, the one charged with regional political, defence, and security issues is by far the most strategic. Headed by Angola's Jorge Cardoso, it has to humour the changing moods of the organisation's rotating presidents at a time when a SADC military response is increasingly expected in Mozambique's Cabo Delgado province.