With four months to go before the presidential election, the head of state is relying on the Parti Congolais du Travail, which is holding its congress at the end of December, and on a small circle of loyalists, while dealing with tensions within his clan.
The main intelligence agency is targeting several youth groups that could become active in the lead-up to the elections scheduled for January. Although the president's re-election is in little doubt, security officials anticipate tensions.
The expiry of America's flagship trade initiative with Africa has triggered a lobbying offensive by US apparel groups and African governments. Madagascar is leading the charge, while delegations from Kenya, Lesotho and Tanzania will press Congress for a three-year extension.
The organisation of the Présidence de la Refondation de la République marks a significant shift towards the militarisation of Madagascar's executive branch. The new structure concentrates power around the colonel and his four advisers.